Why militaries well-equipped to fight enemy aircraft and missiles may still struggle to confront the drone threat

Western militaries, despite possessing advanced air defense systems designed to counter aircraft and missile threats, are facing significant challenges in effectively detecting and neutralizing small, low-flying drones.

Many traditional air defense systems were primarily developed to target larger, faster, and higher-altitude threats such as aircraft and ballistic missiles. These systems often lack the sensitivity and specificity needed to identify small, slow-moving drones that operate at low altitudes, often below radar line-of-sight, making detection difficult.

For example, Ukraine’s use of advanced systems like the Patriot missile defense, which can detect and engage drones, was not originally designed for that purpose. These systems are costly and less efficient against the proliferation of cheap, low-flying drones, which are increasingly used in modern conflicts.

Defense companies like Robin Radar have had to upgrade their radar systems initially designed for detecting ships or aircraft to better identify small drones. These upgrades involve integrating multiple sensors, including acoustic and visual detection, to improve identification accuracy. The challenge remains in not only detecting these small targets but also in effectively intercepting or destroying them with appropriate weapons systems.

Why It Matters

This difficulty in countering drone threats highlights a critical gap in current military defense architectures, which could compromise the ability to defend against coordinated attacks involving multiple aerial threats. The proliferation of inexpensive, low-flying drones poses a new dimension of vulnerability for Western militaries, potentially affecting national security, military operations, and civilian safety.

Background

The rise of drone technology has shifted the landscape of aerial threats, especially in conflicts like Ukraine where drones such as Iran’s Shaheds and Russian variants are used extensively. NATO allies have responded by increasing spending on air defense systems and developing purpose-built counter-drone solutions. Historically, air defense systems were optimized for larger threats, but the evolving battlefield demands layered, integrated approaches to detect and defeat a broad spectrum of aerial targets.

“You need to link together lots of different types of sensors that are all kind of placed and optimized for covering different geographical areas, altitudes, and speeds of threats.”

— Justin Bronk, RUSI airpower expert

“Detecting a drone is really a different ballgame; they are relatively slow-moving and very small, requiring upgraded radar systems and multiple sensors.”

— Siete Hamminga, CEO of Robin Radar

What Remains Unclear

It remains unclear how quickly and effectively militaries can fully adapt their existing defense systems to counter the growing drone threat. The cost and complexity of integrating new sensors and interceptors pose ongoing challenges, and the pace of technological development may influence future capabilities.

What’s Next

Militaries are expected to continue developing and deploying purpose-built counter-drone systems, integrating multiple sensors, and refining command and control networks. Further testing and operational deployment of these systems will determine their effectiveness in real-world scenarios.

Key Questions

Why are traditional air defense systems not effective against small drones?

Traditional systems are designed to detect larger, faster, and higher-flying threats like aircraft and missiles. They often lack the sensitivity and resolution needed to identify small, slow-moving drones operating at low altitudes.

What are the main technological challenges in detecting drones?

Drones are small, slow-moving, and operate below radar line-of-sight, making them difficult to detect with standard radars. Upgrading sensors, integrating multiple detection methods, and distinguishing drones from clutter are key challenges.

Are current systems capable of stopping all drone threats?

While some advanced systems can detect and engage drones, no single solution is fully effective against all types of small, low-flying drones. A layered, integrated approach combining various sensors and interceptors is necessary.

How are militaries adapting their defenses to this new threat?

Militaries are developing purpose-built counter-drone systems, upgrading radars, and improving command and control networks to better detect and neutralize small drones in diverse operational environments.