TL;DR
A recent study finds that the abrupt shutdown of USAID in 2025 caused a rise in violence across Africa, increasing conflict, fatalities, and instability. The aid cuts are linked to a surge in violent events, with long-term security implications.
A new study confirms that the abrupt shutdown of USAID in 2025 led to a significant increase in violent conflicts across Africa, with nearly one thousand subnational units experiencing heightened violence, deaths, and instability.
The study, published in Science, attributes the rise in violence directly to the US aid cuts, which were implemented rapidly after the agency’s dissolution announced by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Researchers analyzed geolocated aid disbursement data (GODAD) and conflict records (ACLED), finding that regions heavily dependent on US aid saw a 6.5% higher probability of conflict events post-shutdown. Specific increases included a 10% rise in protests and riots, a 10.6% increase in conflict events, and a 9.3% rise in battle-related fatalities.
According to Austin L. Wright, study co-author and associate professor at the University of Chicago, the aid cuts created a ‘shock’ to local economies and social stability, making violence more attractive and reducing the opportunity costs of conflict. The study estimates that between 2021 and 2024, USAID helped save 91 million lives, including many children under five, highlighting the profound human toll of the aid reduction.
Why It Matters
This development underscores the complex role of foreign aid in conflict mitigation and stability. The findings suggest that the US aid withdrawal has not only caused immediate humanitarian harm but also increased the risk of long-term instability and security threats, both regionally and for the United States. The loss of USAID’s soft power and early-warning capabilities further exacerbates vulnerabilities, as evidenced by incidents like the seizure of aid supplies by Iran-backed groups in Yemen.
The study highlights the potential for aid reductions to inadvertently fuel conflicts, especially when rapid and large-scale. The long-term security implications, including the creation of ‘conflict traps,’ threaten to destabilize the region further, with consequences that could ripple globally.
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Background
USAID, established in 1961, has historically been a major US foreign aid agency, contributing to conflict reduction and development across Africa. Its rapid dissolution in 2025, under the Trump administration’s directives, marked an unprecedented scale of aid withdrawal, with less than 1% of US federal spending involved. The aid was instrumental in saving millions of lives and supporting stability, but its abrupt end has led to increased violence and regional instability. The aid cuts also influenced European and allied nations’ aid policies, further weakening international support for development efforts in Africa.
“When those funds rapidly go away, it’s a shock to the opportunity cost, and now it becomes more attractive to participate in violence or crime.”
— Austin L. Wright
“It’s a bit of a ticking time bomb, because you’re removing the conflict-reducing side of aid while leaving conflict-enhancing factors in place.”
— Wright
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What Remains Unclear
While the study establishes a strong correlation between aid cuts and increased violence, the precise causal mechanisms and long-term effects remain under investigation. It is also unclear how regional political factors or other external influences may have contributed to the observed conflicts, and whether aid reactivation could reverse some of these effects.
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What’s Next
Researchers plan to monitor conflict trends over the coming months to assess whether violence persists or diminishes with potential aid reinstatement. Policymakers and international organizations are likely to evaluate the findings to inform future aid strategies and prevent similar destabilizations.
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Key Questions
What specific regions in Africa were most affected?
The study indicates that regions heavily dependent on US aid, particularly in West and Central Africa, experienced the most significant increases in violence following the aid cutoff.
Could aid reinstatement reduce the violence?
Potentially, yes. The study suggests that restoring aid could help reduce conflict, but the long-term effects depend on how quickly and effectively aid is reintroduced and targeted.
What are the implications for US foreign policy?
The findings highlight the risks of abrupt aid withdrawal, suggesting that a more gradual or conditional approach might better support stability and security in aid-dependent regions.
